Lightning protection is not a passing trend; it provides lasting protection for people, buildings, processes, and sensitive equipment. However, major weather patterns can shift the areas and seasons where the most active thunderstorms are most likely. Among these, El Niño deserves particular attention.
To learn more about the ENSO mechanism, see our first article on the ENSO mechanism.
Indeed, El Niño does not allow for predicting the next strike at a given location. It alters seasonal probabilities and environments conducive to convection; therefore, the lightning response varies significantly from region to region. For international operators, the operational consequence remains clear: update local data, monitor actual activity, and maintain coordinated protection at all times.
El Niño in brief: a climate driver, not a local alert
El Niño is the warm phase ofENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), a coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific. When surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are abnormally high, winds, humidity, and tropical convection zones reorganize.
- El Niño corresponds to a warm phase that redistributes convection; it does not create thunderstorms everywhere.
- La Niña is the cold phase, with effects that are often opposite but never perfectly symmetrical.
- A neutral phase does not mean the absence of storms, lightning strikes, or risks to installations.
In August 2026, international organizations observed an established El Niño and anticipated its strengthening. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) uses the category "very strong El Niño"; the term "super El Niño," frequently used in the media, is not an operational category of the WMO. This information is useful for seasonal preparation, but it does not replace local forecasts or real-time alerts.
From convection to lightning: what science shows
Lightning originates primarily in deep convective clouds. Available moisture, atmospheric instability, updrafts, thermal gradients, and cloud microphysics all contribute to the separation of electrical charges. Thus, a warmer sea or higher temperature does not mechanically translate to more lightning; it is the entire convective environment that matters.
ENSO acts precisely on this environment. By shifting tropical convection zones and atmospheric circulation patterns, it can increase the likelihood of electrical activity in some places and reduce it in others. This distinction is crucial: a global average never accurately reflects the risk to a power plant, industrial site, or telecommunications network.
- Increased humidity and instability can promote deep convective cells in a given region.
- Conversely, a shift in convection can reduce thunderstorm activity in another region or in another season.
- The observations must be cross-referenced with local keraunic data, real-time weather and the operating context.
AJ Dowdy's seminal study, published in 2016 in Scientific Reports, compares NASA OTD/LIS satellite lightning densities to several climate modes. Among the seven modes studied, ENSO shows the strongest relationship with electrical activity for each season. The Niño-3.4 index is significantly correlated with local lightning activity in 53% of the grid cells for at least one season.
This figure does not guarantee an overall increase. Positive and negative correlations coexist: on land, the study found a positive correlation for at least one season in 35% of areas and a negative one in 18%. In other words, ENSO redistributes risk more than it increases it uniformly.
The major episodes: strong, but regional signals
Major episodes provide useful case studies for understanding the potential magnitude of convective reorganizations. Williams and his colleagues studied the transition to the very strong events of 1997/98 and 2015/16, notably using Schumann resonances, supplemented by satellite observations and the WWLLN network.
The authors report that, during certain transition months, increases in lightning intensity ranging from a few tens to a few hundred percent were observed. Depending on the area and the indicators, increases of around 100% to 300% were therefore observed; these do not constitute a global multiplier nor a forecast for the current cycle.
- For 1997, the signal studied was particularly linked to Southeast Asia, the Maritime Continent and India.
- For 2014–2015, the observed response showed a more global extent, while remaining heterogeneous.
- The authors analyze search signals; they do not propose an operational alert system for sites.
Mapping global electricity activity without confusing the data
Lightning maps are essential, but they don't all answer the same question. On the one hand, scientific maps based on OTD/LIS data used by Dowdy illustrate seasonal anomalies associated with ENSO phases. On the other hand, modern detection networks describe events observed over a given period.
During El Niño, the tropical zones of the central and eastern Pacific are at the heart of the reorganization of convection. Effects can also appear, depending on the season and the specific event, in parts of the Americas, Southeast Asia, India, or the central and eastern Mediterranean. However, it would be incorrect to transform this variable geography into a universal map of danger.
- An ENSO anomaly map indicates where activity may deviate from a typical seasonal pattern.
- A detection map indicates where events were actually measured.
- A risk study primarily uses the local density appropriate to the site, its environment, and the consequences of damage.
The annual Vaisala Xweather report forecasts more than 2 billion lightning events worldwide in 2025, 7% fewer than in 2024, according to its network. In the United States, 252 million events were detected, a 20% year-over-year increase and the highest number in eight years. These figures include intracloud and cloud-to-ground events; they should not be confused with ground strikes on infrastructure.
Lightning protection: turning climate signals into useful decisions
Faced with variable thunderstorm activity, the best strategy is not to wait for a weather forecast. It is to design, verify, and operate a protection system adapted to the site. The IEC 62305 provides the international framework for assessing risk and protection against lightning; it does not allow for the automatic deduction of a protection class from ENSO.
In this approach, Ng designates the ground lightning density used for risk analysis in the context of FD C 17-108. This local data should not be replaced by a generalization about the global climate. Nor should it be confused with historical event data provided by Strike Radar, which are used to document the observed exposure around a site.
- Conduct or update the risk analysis when the site, equipment, uses or local data change.
- Coordinate external protection, grounding, Equipotential Spark Gap and surge protection.
- Plan inspection and maintenance, taking into account actual exposure and operating conditions.
- Establish alert, safety and business continuity procedures for sensitive teams and operations.
A ESE lightning rod is considered part of direct protection when selected by the design and integrated into a coherent system; in France, NF C 17-102 constitutes the applicable regulatory framework. However, no single component renders a site invulnerable: the quality of the sizing, construction, testing, and protection of incoming networks remains crucial.
From real-time signal to installation traceability
Seasonal climate data is used for planning; decisions during a storm require real-time information. Sky Sentinel is a professional, real-time HSE weather and lightning warning system designed to help teams implement their procedures before, during, and after a storm threat. It complements physical protection; it does not replace it.
To analyze past lightning events around a site, Strike Radar is the historical lightning detection radar. It allows you to use recorded data to document exposure and analyze past events.
- Use Sky Sentinel alerts to trigger operational procedures at the right time.
- Utilize Strike Radar recordings to document exposure and analyze past events.
- Centralize inspections, corrective actions, and installation history in the LPS Manager (iOS and Android), particularly for multi-site facilities. The lpsmanager.io showcases the solution; product management is handled within the app.
Frequently Asked Questions about El Niño and Lightning
- El Niño does not produce a uniform increase in lightning.
- The protection plan is decided based on the local risk analysis.
- Metropolitan France should not be subject to ENSO overinterpretation.
Does El Niño mean more lightning everywhere?
No. El Niño alters the probability of convection and lightning depending on the region and season. Scientific studies show increases in some areas, but also decreases in others; a uniform increase should not be applied.
Should the protection of a building during El Niño be changed immediately?
Not solely based on the phenomenon itself. Any sizing decision must be based on an IEC 62305 risk analysis, local data, building characteristics, connected networks, and the consequences of a failure. However, it is also important to verify controls, maintenance, and alert procedures.
What is the expected effect in metropolitan France?
It must be treated with caution. Météo-France emphasizes that the influence of El Niño is weak in mainland France; therefore, no responsible forecast can predict an increase in French lightning activity based solely on ENSO. Lightning protection remains, however, a constant necessity, based on local risk and the specific needs of each installation.
Sustained vigilance, beyond El Niño
El Niño serves as a reminder that electrical activity is linked to a moving atmosphere and that convective patterns are redistributed globally. The findings of Dowdy and Williams suggest a nuanced approach to forecasting: observing seasonal signals, without confusing them with local predictions. For each site, an up-to-date risk analysis, ESE lightning rods (where the study deems them appropriate), surge protection, and documented maintenance remain the foundations of resilience.
- Update the risk analysis with relevant site data.
- Coordinate external protection, surges, maintenance and alert procedures.
- Document events and corrective actions over time.
Sky Sentinel alerts, Strike Radar data, and centralized information in LPS Manager connect storms, events, and facility monitoring. Contact LPS France to request a lightning and surge risk assessment tailored to your sites.
Sources
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, July 9, 2026.
- World Meteorological Organization, Strong El Niño expected to intensify, July 31, 2026.
- AJ Dowdy, Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world, Scientific Reports, 2016.
- E. Williams et al., Evolution of Global Lightning in the Transition From Cold to Warm Phase Preceding Two Super El Niño Events, JGR: Atmospheres, 2021.
- Vaisala, Xweather Annual Lightning Report 2025, January 5, 2026.
